It pours! While winter in Southwest Florida is not the rainy season, Bonita Springs and environs have been flooded with home buyers. After a 5-year “drought”, the real estate market has come back to life.

Almost every Realtor we meet seems to be busy this winter. For the Boeglin Team, the strong finish to 2011 has been followed with an extremely active January. We are scheduled to close 7 transactions this month, and we have already placed an additional 4 listings and 1 buyer under contract. Feedback from other Realtors indicates we may not be finished with new contracts in January, as our listed homes are getting serious showings.

The inventory of attractive homes on the market is dropping fast. It is becoming “slim pickings” for buyers who have been hesitant to commit. Fewer and fewer “bargains” or “steals” are out there.

What is driving this surge in activity? I am sure the experts have their theories. My gut feeling as a Southwest Florida Realtor is this:

• There is pent up demand, as “snow birds” have been renting or deferring their decision to buy in Florida during the past 5 years;
• Economic news and stock market recoveries are making folks more comfortable with their financial ability to buy a home;
• Home prices are down almost 50% from their highs, and mortgage rates are at historic lows, making homes extremely affordable;
• The stream of distress sales has slowed significantly;
• Communities and golf clubs have returned to financial stability; and
• Bonita/Estero/Naples is still one of the very best places to live, whether the home is seasonal or year-round.

We were new Realtors during the “bubble” of 2003 to 2006. It had a feeling of over-exuberance, as buyers were afraid of missing their opportunity to get a piece of the action. “Flippers” were treating the Florida real estate market like a Las Vegas crapshoot. Developers were building on every available space. Banks were offering mortgages if the buyer had a pulse.

The current real estate market has an entirely different feel—at least so far. Buyers are being cautiously confident, and driving hard bargains in arriving at negotiated contracts. Developers are in the early stages of recovery. Banks are making sure that they don’t experience the financial meltdown of several years ago. This feels more like a “normal recovery cycle” to me.

Picture the face of an old-fashioned clock, with 12 at the top, 6 at the bottom, 3 on the right, and 9 on the left. Then, picture a pendulum hanging from the center of the face in place of the hands of the clock.

Now picture the pendulum hanging straight down at the 6 to reflect a neutral real estate market, where buyers and sellers are in equilibrium. A “buyers market” occurs if the pendulum swings rightward toward the 3; a “sellers market” if the pendulum swings leftward toward the 9.

During my 69 year old lifetime, the pendulum has been relatively stable and mostly on the side of sellers, which explains the long term appreciation in home values. However, in the last 10 years, the pendulum has been swinging wildly.

In the period from 2002 through 2005, the pendulum swung extremely leftward past the 9 into the 10 or 11 range, reflecting a strong sellers market and high home prices. In 2006, the pendulum began to swing back to the right and turned into a “bubble burst” in which momentum moved past equilibrium and all the way past the 3 and into the 1 or 2 range. Home prices were in the toilet. Despite government efforts to restart housing, the pendulum was still stuck at about 3 in 2010, which was a definite buyers market with low home prices. The second half of 2010 began to show signs of life in the housing market.

In 2011, slow but sure market activity began to swing the pendulum past the 4 in the general direction of a sellers’ market. Now, in early 2012, there is strong indication that the market is gaining momentum and moving back toward the equilibrium range of 5 to 7. If history is any indication, and barring unforeseen surprises, it should be a sellers’ market within the year.

What does all of this mean to homeowners and interested home buyers? To me, it means that if you want to sell your home, this year provides an excellent opportunity to do so. If you want to buy a home, you may not want to drag your feet too much longer. Homes are attractively priced, mortgage rates are at or near historic lows, and the U.S. economy is showing signs of life.

That’s the way I see it from my perspective as a Southwest Florida Realtor.

Not being Hispanic myself, and loving tacos, I decided not to be personally offended by the taco reference. However, referring to Bonita Springs as a “dump” was shocking to me. The comment reminded me of the psychological concept of “projection”.

I do not have a Ph.D (or a masters or bachelors degree) in psychology, so don’t bet the farm on my theory, but simply put, the concept of projection means: we tend to look inside ourselves, and then project out a reflection of what we see inside. If our inner world is a fearful, negative “dump”, that is what we will see in our outer world. If our inner world is peaceful, confident, and loving, we will see a beautiful world around us.

I remember listening to a tape from a real psychologist, Dr. Wayne Dyer, which related a story of being approached by a stranger while walking a South Florida beach. The stranger recognized Dr. Dyer from a recent television appearance, and told him that she and her husband had just moved to Florida from the Nashville area. She asked Dr. Dyer: “What are the people like around here?” He asked her a question in return: “What were people like in Nashville?” She indicated that they were rude, unfriendly, and hard to get to know. “Well, that’s pretty much how they are here, too.” i.e. Our inner world determines our experience of the world around us.

Florida is somewhat unique, in that many of the people who live here came from someplace else. Most of us moved here when we were past 50 years of age, and had already accumulated a lot of inner baggage. For some of us, not all of that baggage was positive. Re-locating is a great opportunity to re-pack our bags, and change the way we process our lives. It is truly a second chance to improve our experience of the world by changing our point of view.

One of the great things about America is that we all have the freedom to choose our thoughts. We can choose to live in a “dump” or in a Paradise of beautiful beaches, bike paths, golf courses, world class climate, and active, friendly neighbors.

Having been on a biking binge during the Holidays, I decided to give my “bike seat” a rest on Monday and walk to Lely Barefoot Beach. It is a 9 mile round trip from my home to the beach, and would give me time to bask in the glow of December’s IU basketball upsets of #1 Kentucky and #2 Ohio State.

Returning home along Bonita Beach Road at the 7 mile mark of my trek, I observed a group of 6 young women on bicycles, all wearing Indiana University bike jerseys. They were stopped at a traffic light as I walked past them. I was wearing an IU windbreaker that I had won at a golf outing many years ago. I suspected that I was hallucinating from the long walk.

The bikers turned into the parking lot of one of Bonita’s landmarks, the Master Bait and Tackle Shop. They were looking for a photo op, and lined up on their bikes in front of the large sign on the wall. As I walked by, I was asked to take their picture. They seemed excited to notice that a fellow Hoosier would be their photographer, even if he was 50 years their senior.

We chatted after the pictures. They were a Little 500 team on a training run from Cape Coral to Naples and back, which is about 90 miles round trip. I was able to direct them to the best bike route from Bonita to Naples.

There was a spring in my step as I walked the final 2 miles home. I do not believe in coincidences. I think this chance encounter was an omen—a sign that 2012 is indeed “The Year of the Hoosiers”—and not just the basketball team. This is The Year for Hoosiers everywhere. If you have never lived in Indiana, or attended IU, if you know someone who has, you may be designated an Honorary Hoosier. Have a great 2012!

The past year has been an interesting, challenging, and productive year for us. As 2011 comes to a close, this is the time of year when we slow down, take a breath, connect with family and friends, and re-energize for the New Year.

Many years ago, a wise mentor urged me to plan ahead in a very specific way. His suggestions involved the following steps:

1. Go inside, and ask myself to consider my Mission in life. Why am I here? Who and what are most important to me? What makes me feel really good about myself?

2. What are the goals that are most consistent with my Mission? What helps to get me "on Purpose"? Those are the goals that are worth setting. Anything else is just "fluff".

3. What are the best strategies that I can employ to achieve my goals? i.e. How can I live my daily life in a way that will move me in the direction of my Mission?

4. Most importantly, put the plan down on paper, in writing, and keep that written plan in front of me, day after day, to keep me focused.

My early religious (over)training has made it difficult for me to be told what "should" be my Mission, my Goals, and my Strategies - even if I'm the one telling me. So, I tend to put my goals in the form of "what ifs". i.e. What if I had a goal of biking 6,000 miles in 2012. How would that goal help me to be the person I want to be? For me, the answer is that 6,000 miles on my bike will keep me healthy, physically fit, filled with writing ideas, and energized to be that person - unless I get run over by a dump truck.

I consider my personal plan to be just that-personal-so I won't bore you with my specific goals for 2012. Suffice it to say that they involve the ongoing success of the Boeglin Team, physical and mental health, relationships, writing, and technology. Golf did not make my list of goals this year. My game will be what it will be.

The message I do want to share is this: For me, setting goals for the New Year is not about "results" that are forgotten before the end of January. Rather, it is an ongoing process for the entire year. By keeping those targets out in front of me every day, the process of my life tends to move in the general direction of my goals. There are good days and difficult days, but staying in the process keeps me focused and on target.

Whatever is your process, we wish you a Happy, Successful 2012.

Being a Realtor is nothing like being a rocket scientist. We have a fairly simple business model. Although I know very little about the oil industry, I like to compare our real estate business to an oil pipeline.

In the oil industry, revenue is dependent on finding sources of oil to refine and get in the pipeline for delivery to end users. Our revenue is dependent on finding homeowners who want to sell, and/or consumers who want to buy a home. We have just two potential sources of revenue:

1. Homeowners who choose the Boeglin Team to list and sell their homes are our primary source of business. In recent years, we’ve been blessed with between 15 and 30 listed homes at any given time. We are always on the lookout for homes to market, and thankfully after 8 years in the business, many of our customers find us--as a result of past services, or as a referral from a friend or former customer, or because of our newsletters, blogs, or yard signs.

2. We also work with interested homebuyers, helping them to find the best community and then the most desirable home for their circumstances and budgets. We meet some of these buyers at open houses, some contact us because of our internet presence, and many are referred to us because of our reputation. Not all of our buyers will buy a home within the next 12 months. For some, it is a lengthy and methodical process. Traditionally, the buyers do not directly pay a commission, even when represented by a Realtor. The commission is paid out of the sellers’ proceeds of sale.

As we negotiate contracts on homes—whether for a seller or a buyer—we think of these signed contracts as being “in the pipeline” and moving toward closing. Most contracts close within 1 or 2 months of their effective date. A few deals get sidetracked by inspection, appraisal, association, title, survey, or other issues. It is never a “sale” until title has passed and money has been exchanged.

The Boeglin Team pipeline is fairly busy right now, with 3 contracts scheduled to close in December, 4 to close in January, and 2 for later in the year. There seems to be a sense of urgency among buyers that this may be the last season for bargain prices. We think they may be right.

“Team” is commonly defined as 2 or more people working together to achieve a common goal. There are many successful, effective Realtors who work alone without being a part of a team. There are also some phenomenally successful real estate teams. Within the Coldwell Banker system, the Saad and Grant Teams stand out as top producers in Naples and Bonita Beach.

Jan and I formed The Boeglin Team more than 8 years ago, with the idea that we could be more productive together, rather than going in different directions. Jan provided a strong marketing background, with organizational and technical skills. I had 30 plus years of legal and negotiating experience, as well as creative writing skills. Together, we were able to provide our customers with a better service than either of us could do as an individual.

A couple of years ago, we had an opportunity to expand the Team. Jim “Grif” Griffith also had a law background, having practiced law in Cleveland for over 40 years. Grif worked his way through law school as a Realtor in the 1960s. He brought a fresh perspective and approach to real estate and added depth to the Team. Earlier this year, Fred Cuthbertson joined the Team. Fred brings sales experience that is invaluable to the Team.

We are not yet in the league of the Saad or the Grant Team, but we are following in their tracks.

The team concept has some obvious benefits for our customers. We are all available to support each other in serving the needs of our customers, whether one of us is sick, are involved in a family crisis, have a time conflict, or need a vacation. We share information and ideas to creatively market our listed homes. We keep each other informed of the buyers with whom we are working, and their needs. We share information on market conditions, technology tools, and new support services. i.e. We bounce ideas off each other. Almost always, 4 heads are better than one.

Some benefits of the team concept are more subtle. We have found that there is a “synergy” involved in our cooperative efforts. We encourage each other, sometimes providing the support and confidence needed to act when we might have not done so on our own. There is an “accountability” factor, which helps to keep each team member focused on real estate. And frankly, it is a lot more fun to be part of a team.

Together, we are preparing for “the season” with the expectation that this winter will be the busiest residential real estate market in recent memory.

If we can believe the newspapers, evening news, and talk shows, misery, poverty, violence, corruption, drugs, abuse, fear and anger permeate our society. Politicians prefer attack to problem solving; sexual predators are everywhere; religious intolerance has become rampant; the "haves" and the "have-nots" are at war with each other. And yet, in my little corner of the world in Spanish Wells, Bonita Springs, Florida, I see mostly good people, acts of kindness, cooperation, helpfulness, friendship, and happiness. I love living in this place.

Sure, there are difficult challenges that arise in every corner of the world, including mine. Stress appears to be a by-product of too many people sharing an imperfect society. I sometimes see fear expressed as anger when a real estate transaction teeters on the brink; I observe tantrums on the golf course when a golfer associates his self worth with his golf swing; I see road rage when a motorist has to wait to go around a bicyclist in traffic; I hear complaining when food or service is less than expected; and there are conflicts among some of the condominium and homeowners associations.

Perhaps my favorite book was written by an Englishman, James Allen, more than a century ago when it was still politically correct to be titled "As a Man Thinketh". His basic message is that "we are what we think", and we have the ability to control our thought process. i.e. We can choose which thoughts are in our minds. Ultimately, our choice of thoughts will govern the nature and quality of our lives.

We all know people who have raised themselves up out of misery and poverty to lead happy, productive lives. We also know people who were given every privilege and opportunity, but ended up in lives of misery and unhappiness. Was it destiny? Luck? Or is it the thought process that creates the circumstances? James Allen (and I) believe it is the thought process that matters most.

I am approaching my 69^th birthday, and 35 of those years were spent as an Indiana attorney in a world based on fear, power, and attack. I have had more than my share of opportunities to observe human nature, including my own. As I age, I am more and more aware of the choices I make in stressful situations. I work constantly to improve my "batting average" in choosing kind, peaceful, loving, non-judgmental thoughts while someone in my world is "losing it". Gradually, I am learning that I can choose how to react; rather than counter attack, I can model sane behavior; and I can also distance myself from the insanity. This allows me to remain peaceful and positive, no matter what is happening around me-i.e. most of the time.

Despite rumors to the contrary, sometimes the government “is here to help”. The Florida Legislature enacted a law this past summer that can be a major benefit to the residents of Spanish Wells and other community associations throughout the State of Florida. But let me digress.

In the summer of 2008, the board of directors of Spanish Wells Community Association was faced with a decision: whether or not to renew the bulk cable contract with Comcast that was due to expire December 31, 2008. In essence, a bulk contract obligates every homeowner in the community to pay Comcast as part of their association dues, whether or not they use this service. This currently amounts to about $500 per year per homeowner.

As representative of Unit 2, I served on the board of directors and was appointed to form a committee to study this issue. We assembled a diverse group of residents on the committee, from single family home owners, to condo owners, to full time residents, to snow birds. Some of the committee members had strong technology backgrounds which were helpful in our study. After careful study and discussion, the committee strongly urged the board of directors to let the Comcast contract expire as scheduled. We felt that renewing the contract would not be a wise decision for our residents for many reasons, including:

• Many of our residents expressed ongoing dissatisfaction with Comcast services, including customer service;
• Many of our residents wanted to be free to select another cable or satellite company for their television service. However, if they did so, they would still have to pay their share of the Comcast charge in addition to their alternative service;
• Many of our residents use their Florida home for only a few months of the year, but were forced to pay Comcast charges throughout the year, whether here or not;
• Some of our homes are vacant, pending a sale or a foreclosure process. The community association has to pay Comcast in full, regardless of delinquencies in association dues. This places additional financial pressure on the associations and their dues-paying residents;
• The Comcast contract provides for annual increases of up to 4% per year, at a time when rates are being driven down by technology and competitive forces; and
• Other cable companies have stayed out of communities that are “bound up” by the Comcast bulk contracts, thereby given Comcast an effective monopoly in our community.

Unfortunately, the board of directors of Spanish Wells Community Association ignored the committee’s recommendation and voted, 5 to 4, to renew the Comcast bulk contract for another 10 years until December 31, 2018. I was a dissenting vote.

Fortunately, the Florida Legislature has come to our rescue. After listening to “horror stories” throughout the State, they took action. The new law provides that any such contracts that were entered into before July 1, 2011 may be cancelled by a majority of the voting interests present at the next regular or special meeting of the association. However, if the association fails to act to cancel the contract, then the residents will be stuck with the contract until its normal expiration date.

Although I am no longer a member of the board of directors, I understand that the matter will be on the board’s agenda at the board meeting on December 21, 2011. Presumably, it will be on the agenda for the next meeting of the Spanish Wells Community Association in early 2012. I urge anyone interested to get in touch with their own neighborhood representative who represents them on the SWCA board, to make sure that your voice is heard on this important issue.

If you do not know who to contact, you can call the SWCA office at 947-4189 and they can tell you who to contact in your neighborhood. In addition, Mike Sokol, a resident of The Lake Club, a fellow Realtor and retired attorney, and his wife, Stacy, may be contacted at 287-8640. Mike, Stacy, and other representatives of The Lake Club have been in contact with their legal counsel, and can provide answers to most questions on this issue.

At least once per month I trek (on my Trek) from our home in Spanish Wells to the Naples Pier. It is a beautiful, safe bike route, by way of Vanderbilt Beach, Pelican Bay, Venetian Village, Crayton, and Gulf Shore. Today was my day, and I couldn’t help but notice the significant amount of home construction going on in the Crayton and Gulf Shore areas. These new homes appear to be in excess of 10,000 square feet, and I doubt that any of them will come in under $5,000,000.

As a Realtor, it was confirmation to me that the “high end” real estate market is doing well. It seems like most of the new construction is in the $1,000,000 plus category, or in the under $300,000 market. There appears to be very little new construction in the mid-range of $300,000 to $1,000,000.

Sunshine Multiple Listing Service (MLS) provided further confirmation of my observations. In the Naples area so far this year, 501 homes have closed for between $1,000,000 and $15,000,000. In addition, there are 59 of these homes under contract and awaiting closure. This compares to 505 such closed sales in all of 2010 and 395 in all of 2009. This trend is consistent with the political topics that currently dominate our media discussions. The top 1% is doing OK.

In Bonita Springs and Estero, there is not a lot of new construction going on in any price range. However, there is good activity in the re-sale of used homes under $1,000,000. My community of Spanish Wells is an excellent example of this activity, with 2011 re-sales already more than double the closings in all of 2010. How long will it be before home builders launch new “mid-range” developments? Personally, I hope it will be a few more years, to give us time to bring the used inventory down enough to exert more upward pressure on home prices.

My next trek to the Naples Pier will probably be near Christmas. If I see foreclosure notices on many of the high-end homes, I will know that the tide has turned for the top 1%. Stay tuned.